The $40,000 Macallan signal

Welcome to your weekly whisky investment briefing, where we summarize the latest market movements and industry updates from the past seven days.

Major Trade Breakthrough: China Halves Whisky Tariffs

The most significant news of the week comes from a diplomatic breakthrough in Beijing. On Thursday, January 29, 2026, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed a new trade agreement with China that halves the import tariffs on UK whisky from 10% to 5%. This move is expected to provide a £250 million boost to the industry over the next five years. Industry leaders, including Diageo CEO Dave Lewis, have welcomed the news, noting that the reduction will significantly improve the competitiveness of iconic brands like Johnnie Walker in one of the world’s fastest-growing consumer markets for premium spirits.

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Market Stability and Record Valuations

A comprehensive market review published by Forbes on January 26, 2026, highlighted the continued resilience of the ultra-premium segment. The report confirmed that the $2.8 million sale of the Emerald Isle (Irish Whiskey) to collector Mike Daley remains the world record for a single bottle. While the broader secondary market saw a “froth correction” throughout 2024 and 2025, current data suggests that the floor has been established. Premium Irish whiskey sales have shown remarkable long-term growth, with super-premium volumes increasing significantly over the last decade.

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Auction Highlights: The Macallan and Bowmore

Recent auction data from the last week of January shows The Macallan maintaining its dominant position in value and volume.

  • The Macallan: High-age statement bottles from The Red Collection (specifically the 50 and 60-year-old expressions) continue to meet reserve prices at major houses, frequently exceeding $40,000 per lot.
  • Bowmore: The final results from the Bowmore x Aston Martin collaboration continue to draw attention. Rare decanters like the ARC-54 have reached the secondary market, with one “Iridos Edition” recently achieving a hammer price of over $120,000, marking it as one of the brand’s highest auction results this year.
  • The Dalmore: Collectors remain focused on The Luminary Series, with the 52-year-old “Rare” edition performing strongly in Asian auction circuits.

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Industry Trends and Export Data

The Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) released updated figures this week showing that total exports for 2025 reached approximately £5.4 billion. While volume has fluctuated, the “premiumization” trend remains intact. Speyside distilleries continue to lead the market in average price per bottle, while Lowland whiskies are seeing increased transaction volume at the entry-level investment tiers (bottles priced under £1,000).

Brand Spotlight: Strategic Shifts

Several distilleries have made tactical adjustments this week to align with the new trade climate. Ardbeg and Laphroaig are reportedly preparing for increased allocations to the East Asian market following the tariff news. Meanwhile, Midleton Very Rare continues to lead the high-end Irish category, with its early 1980s vintages seeing renewed interest from international collectors seeking diversification away from traditional Scotch assets.

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Cheers,
The WhiskyReturns Team



Disclaimer: Nothing in this article should be taken as financial advice or personal financial advice. This article is a summary provided via automated data aggregation for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. While we strive for accuracy, this report may contain errors or omissions; all data and market figures must be independently verified before making any investment decisions. You acknowledge that any reliance on this information is strictly at your own risk.